Every stock scored from what it filed, and the market’s regime read from the options on it.
Thalweg is a set of research apps under one sign-in. Equity reads up to 17 years of SEC filings and ten years of prices and tells you if the business is good, the moat is real, the risk is low and the price is fair. Options reads the options on the sector funds, the S&P 500 and the VIX to tell you whether the market is calm or stressed, where volatility is cheap or rich, and what 3× funds cost to hold.
Thalweg (TAHL-vahg): the line of deepest water in a river, where the main current runs.
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- Business quality
- Very strong
- Moat and safety
- Strong
- Growth
- Strong
- Risk
- Low
- Valuation
- Fair value
Illustration of the layout, not a current rating.
Risk along the bottom, expected return up the side. The curve is the efficient frontier, the straight line runs from the risk-free rate at the best return per unit of risk, and the dot is where they meet. Finding that point, for a stock, a portfolio or the whole market, is what Thalweg is for.
One sign-in, every app.
Equity
Stocks and ETFs
- Every US stock scored from its own 10-K and 10-Q: business, moat, growth, management, risk, valuation
- Fair value, verdict, forecast and full statements with charts
- ETF holdings, drawdowns, technicals, earnings reactions, insider trades, screens
- Ask AI on any stock, with every claim sourced
Options Regime
Market regime and options
- The market’s regime, risk on or risk off, read from S&P 500 (SPX), sector fund and VIX options
- Sector rotation by implied volatility, skew and σ moves
- Single Stock: any ticker’s expected move, earnings move, IV against realized, skew and dealer positioning, with plain-English reads
- The VIX curve, carry and the volatility surface
- 3x leveraged ETFs: drag, decay and when the edge is on; Ask AI on any options question
Portfolio Engineering
Your holdings against a model
- Actual holdings against target weights, by account
- Drift, rebalance trades and red-day add ladders sized to you
- Drawdowns, support levels and full risk metrics against QQQ and SPY
Futures Intelligence
Broad-market equity futures, energy, hedge ratios (how much to hedge, or whether to hedge at all) and advanced forecasting
- ES, NQ, YM, RTY and the energy complex in one view
- Composite signals with entries, targets and exits
- Advanced forecasting models for trend, timing and levels
Costco, the way Thalweg shows it.
Costco Wholesale
Over 3 years. Middle outcome +9.8% a year; 1 in 10 futures below +2.8%, 1 in 10 above +18.2%.
Buy at or below $891.63 for 70% odds.
Today’s price assumes 10.9% growth for ten years; the filings support about 8.6%.
Real Thalweg figures for Costco on October 22, 2026 (price: October 21 close). Shown to explain the product, not as a recommendation.
Eighteen tabs, one answer.
Eight key attributes
Growth, free cash flow, debt, price, capital efficiency, leading signals and moat: pass, watch or fail, with the numbers behind each.
Undervalued, fair or overvalued
Fair value, buy-below price and the return at today’s price, from the stock’s own ten-year normal multiple.
A verdict
Buy, Wait for price, Hold, No new money or Avoid, from a fixed rule you can read. No black box.
The full filings
Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow and comprehensive income for up to 17 years, split-adjusted, plus trailing twelve months.
Notes, MD&A and risk factors
Every note to the financial statements, management’s discussion, risk factors and legal proceedings from the latest 10-K, one click each.
Forecast and the odds
A chart of price against what earnings justify, ten years back and up to six forward, plus 25,000 simulations from the filings that give the odds of each return.
Timing
Risk on or risk off from the moving averages, stretch from each average and real volume numbers: today, yesterday and the 10-, 30- and 90-day averages.
Stock explorer
S&P 500 screens run on the filings: cash machines, shrinking share counts, dividend raisers, net cash fortresses, compounders and fast growers. Plus lists by industry, income and theme, and what the superinvestors own.
Against the market
Every stock measured against SPY, QQQ, DIA or IWM over every period from one day to ten years.
40+ ratios, every year
Valuation, efficiency, debt and return ratios for every fiscal year on file, marked against their own ten-year median, with CSV download.
In context
Return on equity split into its three levers, three bankruptcy models, buy-to-sell odds from 25,000 simulations instead of analyst votes, RSI against its own history and the 200-day price channel.
Sector Strength
The 11 sector funds plus oil, gold, silver, Treasuries, bitcoin and ARK against SPY or QQQ: a rotation map with six-week trails, a strength ladder in σ and a channel for any fund.
Risk, both halves
Business risks scored from the filings, then the market side from prices: how much is market, sector or the stock’s own, downside beta, fat tails, drawdowns and how it came through 12 shocks since 1998.
Pairs and hedges
Every stock priced in its closest peer and its sector fund: the z-score on a 20, 50 or 90-day channel, how rare the stretch is and what happened the other times, a tie strength meter with half-life, and a hedge table that says plainly whether a hedge will work and how many shares to short.
Risk, explained
Which risks pay and which don’t, leverage and volatility drag, SPY’s tails and black swans, market memory, and a dry powder planner that sets your buy levels before the next fall.
Your list
Save a stock with one tap and come back to it; the stocks you open stay under Recently viewed.
Free while we test.
Thalweg is in a private beta. Testers get every app at no cost while we finish it. Plans will be announced before launch, and beta testers hear first.
Before you start
Where does the data come from?
Financial statements are read from the XBRL tags in each company’s SEC EDGAR filings; notes and MD&A come from the same filings. Prices are 15-minute delayed during market hours and end-of-day otherwise, from a licensed market-data provider.
Which stocks are covered?
US-listed companies that file 10-Ks and 10-Qs with the SEC. Most foreign listings and OTC names aren’t covered.
How do I log in?
Use the email address you were invited with. We send a one-time code to that address; there is no password to remember. Each login lasts 30 days.
How does the free trial work?
During the beta there is nothing to pay. When paid plans open, new accounts get 21 days free with a card on file; you are charged on day 22 unless you cancel first. Cancel any time from Account inside the app and you keep access to the end of the period you paid for.
Is this investment advice?
No. Thalweg is for information only. It rates stocks by fixed rules applied to public data, doesn’t know your situation and isn’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Trade at your own risk, and talk to a licensed financial adviser or CPA before investing.